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I.27 — Causality Without Certainty: Why the Arrow Is a Verdict, Not a Theorem
“It is the mark of an educated mind to rest satisfied with the degree of precision which the nature of the subject admits.” — Aristotle A leader cuts the price on the flagship product, and over the next quarter revenue climbs. At the review, the story writes itself: the price cut worked. But pause on…
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I.26 — The Asymmetry of Truth: Why You Cannot Prove a Universal, Only Break It
“No man ever steps in the same river twice.” — Heraclitus For most of European history, all swans are white was not a theory. It was a fact, confirmed by every swan anyone had ever seen, for centuries. Then, in 1697, a Dutch expedition reached the rivers of Western Australia and watched a black swan…
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I.24 — Science Is Not an Oracle: What Science Is, and Is Not, as an Input to Decision
“Sit down before fact as a little child, and be prepared to give up every preconceived notion.” — Thomas Henry Huxley Someone says the science says, and the room goes quiet. The phrase lands like a gavel. The debate that was live a second ago is over, because who argues with science? And that reflex,…
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I.22 — The Five Voices Behind Every “Rational” Decision: Why “Rational” Is a Settlement, Not a Single Truth
“Nothing is easier than self-deceit. For what each man wishes, that he also believes to be true.” — Demosthenes You have sat in some version of this room, facing a decision big enough to outlive the people making it. Finance opens: the data is clear, a twenty percent efficiency gain; Operations answers that it is…
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The Decision Papers 