The Decision Papers

  • The Decision Papers — Lever or Weather: When Prediction Feels Like Power. Banner with a long lever balanced on a fulcrum beside an immovable mountain outline, on aged paper.

    I.29 — Lever or Weather: When Prediction Feels Like Power

    “It is far better to foresee even without certainty than not to foresee at all.” — Henri Poincaré Two companies get the same warning from the same kind of model: a sharp drop in demand is coming, six months out, and the forecast is solid. In the first boardroom, the question is how do we…

    The Decision Papers
  • The Decision Papers — Causality Without Certainty: Why the Arrow Is a Verdict, Not a Theorem. Banner with a geometric triangle diagram in a gray watercolor wash, crossed by a small gold arrow.

    I.27 — Causality Without Certainty: Why the Arrow Is a Verdict, Not a Theorem

    “It is the mark of an educated mind to rest satisfied with the degree of precision which the nature of the subject admits.” — Aristotle A leader cuts the price on the flagship product, and over the next quarter revenue climbs. At the review, the story writes itself: the price cut worked. But pause on…

    The Decision Papers
  • The Decision Papers — The Asymmetry of Truth: Why You Cannot Prove a Universal, Only Break It. Banner with a grid of white swans and a single black one breaking the pattern.

    I.26 — The Asymmetry of Truth: Why You Cannot Prove a Universal, Only Break It

    “No man ever steps in the same river twice.” — Heraclitus For most of European history, all swans are white was not a theory. It was a fact, confirmed by every swan anyone had ever seen, for centuries. Then, in 1697, a Dutch expedition reached the rivers of Western Australia and watched a black swan…

    The Decision Papers
  • The Decision Papers — Science Is Not an Oracle: What Science Is, and Is Not, as an Input to Decision. Banner with a sketched scene of figures examining evidence together.

    I.24 — Science Is Not an Oracle: What Science Is, and Is Not, as an Input to Decision

    “Sit down before fact as a little child, and be prepared to give up every preconceived notion.” — Thomas Henry Huxley Someone says the science says, and the room goes quiet. The phrase lands like a gavel. The debate that was live a second ago is over, because who argues with science? And that reflex,…

    The Decision Papers