The Decision Papers

  • The Decision Papers — The Arrow Trap: When a Correlation Smuggles in a Direction. Banner with arrows caught inside a box trap, drawn in watercolor on aged paper.

    I.28 — The Arrow Trap: When a Correlation Smuggles in a Direction

    “They seem conjoined, but never connected.” — David Hume The room thinks it has found the lever. Two lines on the dashboard have moved together for months with uncanny discipline: X rises, Y rises, again and again. Someone says what everyone is already thinking. So if we push down on X, Y comes down with…

    The Decision Papers
  • The Decision Papers — When a Metric Becomes the Sovereign: The McNamara Trap. Banner with an ink chart line climbing over a watercolor wash.

    I.23 — When a Metric Becomes the Sovereign: The McNamara Trap

    “A witty statesman said you might prove anything by figures.” — Thomas Carlyle Robert McNamara came to public decision-making with an ambition you should admire: to make enormous choices more disciplined by separating what leaders wished from what the evidence showed. His whole reputation was built on measurement, the rigour that let modern organisations scale…

    The Decision Papers
  • The Decision Papers — The Strategy Mirage: Confusing Capability With Purpose. Banner with a watercolor road receding toward the horizon.

    I.16 — The Strategy Mirage: Confusing Capability With Purpose

    “When a man does not know what harbour he is making for, no wind is the right wind.” — Seneca Every few years, institutions fall in love with a tool and mistake it for a destiny. “Digital transformation” becomes the strategy, then “cloud,” and now “AI.” The pattern is predictable. The capability feels concrete, modern,…

    The Decision Papers
  • The Decision Papers — What Is Your King?: The Promise Your Decisions Must Obey. Banner with a chess king standing on a board.

    I.12 — What Is Your King? The Promise Your Decisions Must Obey

    “The center of gravity is the hub of all power and movement, on which everything depends; that is the point against which all our energies should be directed.” — Carl von Clausewitz In chess, a player can win pieces, control the centre, dominate the board, and look brilliant doing it, and still lose, because they…

    The Decision Papers