The Decision Papers

  • The Decision Papers — The Arrow Trap: When a Correlation Smuggles in a Direction. Banner with arrows caught inside a box trap, drawn in watercolor on aged paper.

    I.28 — The Arrow Trap: When a Correlation Smuggles in a Direction

    “They seem conjoined, but never connected.” — David Hume The room thinks it has found the lever. Two lines on the dashboard have moved together for months with uncanny discipline: X rises, Y rises, again and again. Someone says what everyone is already thinking. So if we push down on X, Y comes down with…

    The Decision Papers
  • The Decision Papers — Causality Without Certainty: Why the Arrow Is a Verdict, Not a Theorem. Banner with a geometric triangle diagram in a gray watercolor wash, crossed by a small gold arrow.

    I.27 — Causality Without Certainty: Why the Arrow Is a Verdict, Not a Theorem

    “It is the mark of an educated mind to rest satisfied with the degree of precision which the nature of the subject admits.” — Aristotle A leader cuts the price on the flagship product, and over the next quarter revenue climbs. At the review, the story writes itself: the price cut worked. But pause on…

    The Decision Papers